Just encase you haven’t noticed, Andre Drummond is proving to be pretty good at basketball this season and has been pretty good at making DFS owners a lot of money. He’s on a historic stretch right now and it’s an absolute blast to see a post player dominate both ends of the floor in the paint like the old legends used to do. His rebounding will slow down eventually, as 20 per game is simply not sustainable in today’s NBA, but the fact that he’s capable of a 20/20 game against any opponent is impressive enough in itself.
I had a profitable weekend as far as my own DFS success goes, which is certainly a welcome change from all the losing I was doing. I’m still not having great tournament success, but getting back on track with cash games is a good start to getting my bankroll right. Continuously mixing up lineups and playing several different tournament teams a day has led to more cashes in the past few days, but I’ve struggled finding the right value plays on the day. Just have to stick with the process and look for numbers to begin to stabilize as we get further into the season.
Elite Plays of the Day:
Andre Drummond ($9,100 on DK, $9,300 on FD)
As you might have gleamed from the intro, Andre Drummond is my easy top play of the night for several reasons. Historic numbers aside that was already touched upon, you simply can’t afford to fade Drummond completely tonight because of his likely ownership percentages. It would not be surprising to see him close to 40-50% in tournaments and 60+% in cash games. There’s some concern here for a Golden State blowout and Drummond being on a back-to-back, but it’s worth the risk. Don’t overthink this play here and roster him in all formats.
Rajon Rondo ($6,400 on DK, $6,400 on FD)
This might seem like a recency-bias pick with Rondo’s monster game against the Warriors, but I promise he’s an excellent play on both sites again tonight (although it’s not like he drops another 60 FDP night). With Collison out, the Kings simply do not have any other options to turn to at PG, other than the vastly inexperienced Seth Curry. So Rondo should see another 35+ minutes in this one and is in a good match-up going against the Spurs, who are 24th in defense against opposing point guards. What should help Rondo too is getting Boogie back to take some of the pressure off of him. There’s great upside here with some salary savings if you want to pay up at other positions. He’s a stronger tournament than cash game play, but he’s in too good of a spot for me to ignore for cash too.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,100 on DK, $8,200 on FD)
The Kings are a defense we always want to find ways to pick on and Kawhi comes into this match-up in great position to put up a big game. He’s been one of the steadiest DFS performers this season, putting up at least 33.75 FDP a contest while averaging 33 MPG. I wouldn’t be too concerned about a blow-out either as the Kings are coming off two games where they took the Rockets and the Warriors into the 4th quarter in a relatively close game. Cousins being back will help this game stay close too.
Kawhi is still too cheap across the industry for the kind of upside he can bring every game, regardless of opponent and gets to face off against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. I like him in all formats, but he might be a sneaky play in tournaments and go under-owned.
Damian Lillard ($8,500 on DK, $8,900 on FD)
Lillard remains one of my favorite players to roster as his usage rate always makes him a threat to put up a monster game. He especially is a strong play when he gets to face off against a bad defense (ranked 28th in defense against point guards) in a game where both teams like to run and play up tempo. Lillard is as safe a play as it gets in cash game tonight for several reasons: it’s the second highest total on the slate, both teams like to get out and run, and the spread at -1 suggests this game will be close to the end. Lillard getting a pile of minutes is always a good thing for DFS and I think he’s being underrated a bit across the industry for the upside he brings in this game.
One worry to address is if you roster Lillard, that it’s not as likely you’re rostering Curry on the night in your cash games. Curry is of course match-up proof, but we have to take into account the Pistons playstyle and defense in that game (ranked 5th in Defense Rating and 22nd in Pace of play). Lillard is $2k cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s in a far better match-up as far as pace and defenses go.
Will Barton ($4,700 on DK, $5,000 on FD)
This is a game we want exposure a good amount of exposure to tonight and Barton allows us to do that at a discounted price. Similar to Rondo, it might seem like we’re chasing points, but Barton has been extremely consistent all season and remains in a great spot in a high total game. Before his 42 FDP night, he put up at least 20.75 FDP in every game in limited minutes. It seems likely that Barton will take over the starting job after his big game and with Harris struggling, which should lead to a big uptick in production. There’s also a “revenge game” narrative as Portland was the team that traded Barton last season. Fire up Barton in all formats.
Please ask me questions about this slate on my twitter @AsmusSports. Best of luck!