Hoopscritic DFS: The Real Fun Begins

It’s always a good feeling to start the season on the right foot with wins across the board in our match-ups. Short-game slates are always tougher because of how little variation everyone’s lineup has. So if you don’t hit on your one or two contrarian picks, your lineup is going to be weak. Thankfully, that wasn’t us yesterday! Let’s get right into what went right and what went wrong with yesterday’s roster on DraftKings.

PG- Steph Curry- 63.5 FP

SG- Kyle Korver- 13.5 FP

SF- Harrison Barnes- 25.75 FP

PF- Kevin Love- 38.75 FP

C- Andre Drummond- 52.75 FP

G- Jimmy Butler- 32.25 FP

F- Marcus Morris- 38.5 FP

Util- Kent Bazemore- 8.25 FP

Total: 272.5 FP

 

What went right?

So it turns out that Steph Curry ($9,500) is pretty dang good at basketball and proved it in big time fashion yesterday. With Jrue, Tyreke and Norris Cole all out, the Pelicans just didn’t have an answer for him from opening tip. Steph’s ownership percentages were probably a little lower than they should have been because of the name value behind Davis and LeBron, which really helped boost our lineup.

Andre Drummond ($8,200) fit right into our projections as Atlanta was absolutely dominated in the paint on both sides of the floor by him. He turned it on in the second half and brought back shades of prime Dwight Howard with his crazy athleticism. His offensive game is still incredibly raw when he tries to create for himself, but the opportunities will be there on a nightly basis as Detroit continues to develop him as their franchise player. Drummond showed he’s ready to embrace his potential and should comfortably be a top 5 DFS center for us this season.

Marcus Morris ($4,500) also proved he can indeed play without his brother and will be on my radar going forward as a great value play. Other than Reggie Jackson, it looks like Morris will be asked to shoulder a big part of the scoring load and creating opportunities. It also doesn’t look like Stanley Johnson will cut into his minutes much as they spent a lot of the time on the floor together with Morris playing the “stretch 4” role. Playmaking forwards who can hit 3’s and are one of the main scoring options for a team are great value in DFS. Keep Morris in mind, especially at this price, as a viable punt.

What went wrong?

It’s hard to complain about a 272 FP lineup, but hey, let’s do it anyway. Our Hawks picks of the day completely flopped and Kent Bazemore ($3,000) became enemy #1 for DFS players everywhere. Bazemore after winning the starting SF job from Thabo, proceeded to get completely outplayed by Thabo on the night. I get the feeling that this will be a common occurrence this season as we watch these two battle it out in this SF position. While neither guy should be off your radar because of their price, it’s good to understand early that playing time will distributed that game based on whose playing better.

For Kyle Korver ($4,900), this performance is the risk we take every time we roster him; if he’s not hitting his 3’s, he’s not going to hit his value. He struggled in preseason shooting 38% (crazy that % is struggling for a player) and struggled vs Detroit missing open 3’s he normally nails. It’s not panic time yet though as he will eventually snap out of it and Atlanta isn’t suddenly going to stop running plays for him.

Tonight’s Slate:

Now the real fun begins! With a full slate of games tonight, there are few notes I’d like to point out.

  • Most of the top DFS centers are going H-H tonight (Jordan vs Cuz, Gobert vs Drummond, Jefferson vs Whiteside, etc)
  • SF is thin at the top. Kevin Durant gets Kawhi Leonard in his return (and vice versa for Kawhi having to guard Durant), LeBron James is on a back-to-back vs the Memphis defense, Gay might miss with his wife giving birth to their second child, Tobias might miss with an illness and Parsons is out with an injury. Punting at SF is perfectly viable tonight.

 

Elite Plays:

Emmanuel Mudiay: ($5,700 on DK)

Depending on rookies, especially early in the year, is not usually a profitable play, but Mudiay finds himself in a unique situation as a rookie. It’s been reported all offseason that he has the keys to PG slot and Denver fully expects him to be their franchise player. He’s going to be given full reign to make mistakes and will stay on the floor.

He’s shown flashes in preseason that he can come out of the gates and put up good DFS numbers. I expect to see a similar usage rate to what Michael Carter-Williams was in Philadelphia from day one from Mudiay. It’s always risky playing rookies early in the year, but let’s remove the rookie label from him for a second: he becomes a mid-range priced point guard who will play 35+ MPG and have complete control of the offense. That’s good enough for me to keep him in day one.

James Harden: ($10,100 on DK)

Harden takes my top superstar play of the night. I expect very little defense in this game from either team and an extremely high pace play, which only further benefits Harden (and Mudiay) to put up big numbers. Harden will also be guarded by Gary Harris tonight… which as we found out last night with Steph, below average NBA players don’t fair very well vs superstar offensive players. There are other quality stud plays like Westbrook vs the Spurs or Paul vs the Kings, but I don’t see a match-up that’s as favorable as Harden from the high-priced players.

C.J McCollum: ($4,800 on DK)

McCollum’s price is absurdly low for the role he’s expected to have with Portland this season. It’s going to be the Lillard and McCollum show this season for scoring and playmaking for Portland and he’s priced like a low-upside role player. Add in a great preseason for him and a good match-up against a depleted Pelicans team on the second night of a back-to-back and McCollum becomes my favorite play of the day.

Value Plays:

Kris Humphries ($3,900 on DK)

Humphries is a fantastic example of type of player we target for salary savings. He’s starting and expected to get at least 25 minutes and has double-double upside. Humphries should have little problem getting 5x his value in FDP, especially if Tobias Harris isn’t playing. As an added bonus, he’s apparently worked on adding a 3pt shot to his game and was 6-20 during the preseason. Not fantastic percentages, but regardless, it’s a nice boost on a punt play.

Clint Capela ($3,000 on DK)

Copy and paste the Humphries paragraph and input it here. With Howard missing the first game of the season, Capela is in line for the start and will be getting big minutes. He’s had a great preseason and shown he’s a double-double threat when given the minutes. I like this Denver-Houston game to put up a lot of points and see Capela excelling in the up-tempo pace.

Andrew Wiggins: ($6,300 on DK)

While it might be strange to call a $6,300 salary a “value”, we have to look at the context he’ll be playing in tonight. He’s the unquestioned #1 option for the Timberwolves, he’ll be playing 35+ minutes and the Wolves are playing what should be an atrocious Lakers defense. It’s not difficult to see a 20-5-5 sort of line from Wiggins, which would pay for his salary and more.

 

To end every write-up, I’ll post my updated ROI (return on investment) and W-L , just to keep an accurate record of my results.

W-L: 10-0

ROI: 96.9%

If you have any specific questions, please ask on my twitter @AsmusSports. Best of luck!

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