Hoopscritic DFS: Taking Advantage of Mid-Range Value

Slates like tonight are the most fun because there are so many different directions we can go. There isn’t a lot of value we can turn to and there are quite a few projected blow-outs in the super-star games. I think the better approach today is to build a more balanced roster and capitalize on some of the mid-range plays in great match-ups. Let’s get right into it.

 

Elite Plays of the Day:

Paul Millsap: ($8,300 on DK)

Millsap has been one of my most used players in cash games this season for good reason. He is a legitimate 5 category player and has one of the best floors in the entire NBA. He’s where I started my cash lineup today as the Hawks/Clippers game has one of the smallest spreads on the night at -3 with a 207.5 total. With Blake being an absolute fool and delaying his return, targeting PF’s against the Clippers remains a great strategy with the likes of Paul Pierce, Wes Johnson and Luc Mbah a Moute getting a majority of minutes at the position. He’s locked in right now (18.6 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.6 BPG, 2.2 SPG for 43.6 FDP in just 29 MPG) and his price always seem stable in the low $8K’s. He’s viable in all formats, but he’s my favorite cash game play of the day.

Chandler Parsons: ($6,500 on DK)

Parsons, after being one of the more frustrating guys to roster the first couple months of the season, has rebounded to his pre-injury form in the past week and is beginning to take over as a main cog for this Dallas roster. He’s scored at least 30.75 FDP in each of his last 5 games and is shooting the lights out with a 55% FG and 61% 3pt during that span. Minutes are no longer a concern both as he’s averaging 32 MPG in the month of January and has seen no restrictions on Back-to-Back games.

With news that Dirk is sitting this one out, it bumps on Parsons even more. His USG rate sky-rockets without him in the lineup and the Mavericks will need him to put up a monster game to keep it close.

There’s risk of a blow-out for sure, but Parsons is the one player on the Mavericks who’s minutes I’m not worried about. He gets a nice boost in an up-tempo match-up and has been contributing in all categories. Parsons will also see a lower ownership because this game starts and hour and a half later than the next latest game. His floor is incredibly safe, but his upside may be limited if this game is over by the 4th.

Trey Burke: ($4,400 on DK)

Burke is probably the top value play on the slate tonight as he should see close to 35 minutes with Raul Neto out with injury. The Hornets are particularly weak against point guards as well, ranking 19th against the position on the season. This is a perfect example where we don’t really care who the player is, but need to take advantage of the situation. $4,400 player who’s going to get 30-35 minutes against a poor defensive team. In a night where there’s very little value, Burke will be a popular play in all formats.

Archie Goodwin: ($4,800 on DK)

Mr. Chalk Goodwin himself finds himself in a tough match-up against the Cavs, but there’s no reason we shouldn’t keep going back to the well. Phoenix is committed to getting Goodwin and Booker both a serious amount of minutes and shot opportunities. Goodwin has fully taken advantage by increasing his FDP in each consecutive game since entering the starting lineup. At just $4,800 and it being a tough night to find strong value plays, Goodwin will likely be 80%-90% owned once again in cash and 60%-70% in tournaments. Don’t overthink this one and use the free square on DraftKings where there aren’t many viable shooting guard plays on the night.

DeAndre Jordan: ($7,100 on DK)

The run of value centers ruling the slate over the past week is slowly but surely coming to a close, so we turn to Jordan who’s a bit underpriced for this match-up. This game is projected to be one of the closer ones on the evening, which helps secure Jordan’s minutes. We also love targeting centers against the Hawks, who are one of the worst teams at rebounding the ball on both sides of the court. I also feel like the Clippers are going to want to come out strong with the Blake news and show they’re still a team to take seriously. I love Jordan’s floor here as it’s hard to imagine he gets anything less than 10 points, 15 rebounds and a couple blocks and steals in this one. He’s my favorite cash center on the evening.

There you have it! If you have any questions about the slate, please ask questions @AsmusSports. Best of luck!

 

3 Comments

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