Finally, the fun part of the NBA DFS season is upon us as November comes to a close. We now have a great understanding of what usage rates and minutes will look like for a majority of players. Sample size is still fairly limited, but we have a pretty good idea of how teams will perform on a nightly basis. The good news is having more statistical data available for this year makes building lineups easier and less volatile; the bad news is everyone has access to that same data. Still, the way to distinguish our lineups is to continue to follow news closely and find the right spots to get value. Let’s get right into today’s slate.
Elite Plays of the Day:
Jerryd Bayless: ($4800 DK)
Michael Carter Williams has fallen completely out of favor in Kidd’s rotation which has allowed Bayless to step into a major role as the team’s starting point guard. He’s coming of a 43 minute performance has put up at least 29 FDP and 30+ minutes in his last 4 games. He’s been secure in his playing time this season and has averaged 11.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 3.2 APG in his 5 starts this season. I think he’s one of many plays tonight that can hit 6x-7x value on tonight’s slate. Be sure he’s in the starting lineup again, but I’m not worried about his minutes after what we’ve seen from his playing time recently.
Rajon Rondo: ($9,000 on DK)
Rondo has proved a lot of people wrong this season with a career resurgence in Sacramento. It took him 4 or 5 games to get going, but he’s been a triple-double threat basically every time he steps on the floor the past 3 weeks. He’s seeing a massive amount of minutes and has his season averages up to 12.1 PPG, 11.0 APG, 7.3 RPG, 1.8 SPG in 36.1 MPG. DeMarcus Cousins is also questionable for this night’s game, which would put more reliance on Rondo to create for the Kings. Even if Cousins is in, Rondo has been as safe a cash game play as there’s been in the past few weeks. I like Rondo quite a bit in the highest total game of the night with two teams that don’t play very much defense. I’ll be firing him up in both tournaments and cash today.
Clint Capela: ($5,100 on DK)
Capela will be one of the more popular players on today’s slate, but he’s proving to be one of the better value plays as he’s been named the starter. Playing next to Dwight has paid off big for him the last 2 games as he’s averaging 15.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG. He’s in another great match-up tonight as Howard will be tasked with guarding Drummond and Capela will get Ersan Ilyasova. It seems Capela’s role is secure for J.B. Bickerstaff and will be in line for another 30+ minutes. He’s another fantastic cash game option, but I’ll be looking elsewhere for tournaments as he’ll probably be 30%+ owned on the slate.
Wes Matthews: ($4,400 on DK)
Matthews has not been as advertised for the Mavericks this season, but to be fair, is still working himself back from injury. This is a great match-up for Matthews to have a big game against the extremely bad shooting guard defense that’s ranked 29th this season. The good news with Matthews is that his minutes restriction has pretty much been lifted and he’s been playing 30+ minutes in his last 10 games. This is a match-up where we don’t even have to look at the name; any player at $4400, 30+ minutes, against horrible shooting guard defense in the highest total game would be a good play. The fact that Matthews does have big game upside makes this play that much stronger.