Hoopscritic DFS: Don’t Be Results-Oriented

It took all of two days for the first major DFS disappointment of the year as one of my top plays of the slate, Andrew Wiggins, completely threw a wrench in what was otherwise a fantastic lineup. The  consensus prediction for the game was right on the money too; neither team played any defense and both teams were playing at a fast pace. He just wasn’t a priority at all offensively in this game. Which is strange enough in itself, but Wiggins also wasn’t contributing in any other facet either as he normally does. 1 rebound, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 2 turnovers.

It’s good to have this lesson come early though as the one thing any DFS player cannot be is results-oriented. I’ll take Wiggins in last night’s situation against the Lakers 100/100 times as it was just unlucky he was on the roster during one of his worst games as a pro. Still, it stings to think “what could have been?” with a normal performance from him, considering how the rest of our lineups played out. Let’s get right into it what went right and what went wrong.

FanDuel Lineup:

Emmanuel Mudiay- 25.5 FDP

Rajon Rondo- 18.4 FDP

James Harden – 43.2 FDP

C.J. McCollum- 47.7 FDP

Paul George- 46.4 FDP

Andrew Wiggins- 8.2 FDP

Kris Humphries- 17.2 FDP

Julius Randle- 30.2 FDP

Greg Monroe- 52.8 FDP

Total= 289.6 FDP

DraftKings Lineup:

Mudiay- 32.75 FDP

Harden- 46 FDP

George- 50 FDP

Humphries- 19.5 FDP

Koufos- 25.75 FDP

McCollum- 51 FDP

Wiggins- 9.25 FDP

Monroe- 55 FDP

Total= 289.25 FDP

 

What went right?

It’s a great feeling when research pays off and players perform up to and exceed their expected roles. Mudiay was given the keys to the team and showed versatility to contribute in many categories, but does need to keep the turnovers in check to be a reliable DFS source. George did what many stars do on rough shooting nights and found ways to contribute in other ways by nearly getting a triple-double. Monroe stepped up as the main source of offense and playmaking for the Bucks without Parker and Giannis.

C.J. McCollum was the chalk value pick around the industry and he rewarded everyone who didn’t fade him with a breakout performance. While beating up an injury-riddled Pelicans backcourt will help anyone look amazing, it’s pretty clear that Portland will be leaning heavily on McCollum and Lillard for virtually all of their playmaking and scoring this season. He’ll be in my lineups every day until the inevitable price bump.

What went wrong?

Honestly, nothing. Other than an aberration game from Wiggins, and Rondo underperforming on his salary, we got fantastic value from everyone on the board. And that’s all you can ask for from your lineups.

Elite Plays of the Day

Three-game slates are always tough because there are less ways to differentiate yourself from the pack. Finding those couple value plays are so crucial to having a successful slate. Let’s get into it.

C: Marc Gasol ($8,300 on DK, $8,400 on FD)

The Grizzlies are not a team that gets blown out two games in a row and they’ll be looking to take their physical brand of basketball right at the small-ball Pacers. We just saw Jonas Valanciunas drop 21 and 15 on the Indiana centers and I don’t see them having much more success against Gasol. I’ll be looking for the Memphis offense to involve Gasol early and get Ian Mahinmi in foul trouble to put further pressure on a limited number of big men for the Pacers. Gasol might be under owned tomorrow too with how low of a total this game is expected to be and people gravitating towards the Clippers/Mavericks game.

PG: Dennis Schroder ($4,700 on DK, $4,800 on FD)

Schroder has made some waves in recent weeks saying he deserves the starting nod over incumbent all-star Jeff Teague. He backed it up with his play in the opener though with a big line of 20 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 1 turnover in just 25 minutes. He’d be a viable play anyway on the short slate, but a Thabo Sefolosha injury gives a boost to Schroder’s potential minutes. It wouldn’t be surprising to see more Schroder-Teague lineups and him get closer to 30 minutes played in this one. Play him confidently in all formats.

PF: Blake Griffin ($9,500 on DK, $9,900 on FD)

Griffin is my top play of the slate pretty handily in this match-up against the Mavericks. This game has a high total, (210.5 points) there isn’t anyone on the Mavericks with a sliver of hope of staying in front of Griffin and the Clippers are in their home opener. The worry here is that this is a blow-out early and Griffin is sitting out a majority of the 4th quarter. Even if that happens, in similar fashion to Curry a few nights ago, Blake will still very likely have a monster game that pays off his salary and more. He’s the chalk “stud” play in all formats.

PG: Raymond Felton ($3,000 on DK, $4,000 on FD)

Felton is one of the top value plays of the day and will be in line for 30+ minutes again vs the Clippers. With Matthews and Williams both on minute restrictions, Felton is the next guy in line to receive extra playing time. He’ll have the opportunity, the minutes, and the green light to put up shots in what should be a high scoring game. There’s just too much value here, especially on DraftKings, to not have Felton in all formats

Fanduel W-L: 5-0

ROI: 110%

DraftKings W-L: 17-0

ROI: 113%

Please ask me on twitter @AsmusSports for any other questions on this slate. Best of luck!

 

 

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *