Hoopscritic DFS: Boogie Fever

We’re off to a great start this NBA season with our third consecutive day of profit while fighting through two 3-game slates in the process. The value picks yesterday (Schroder and Felton) did not quite live up to expectations, but them being in the lineup didn’t cost us because of their popularity with everyone else.

We missed cashing in tournaments for the first time this season, but missing the money happens more than people might realize. A bankroll strategy I use with regards to tournament entries is never use more than 25% of the money I’m playing that day. It still gets you exposure to tournaments, but you also aren’t going broke in the process trying to chase the big payday. Let’s get right into what went right and what went wrong with yesterday’s lineups.

 

Fanduel:

PG Dennis Schroder- 16.2 FDP

PG Raymond Felton- 10.2 FDP

SG Sasha Vujacic- 11.4 FDP

SG Kent Bazemore- 16.7 FDP

SF Carmelo Anthony- 42.9 FDP

SF Paul George- 35.1 FDP

PF Blake Griffin- 42 FDP

PF Paul Millsap- 38.7 FDP

C Marc Gasol- 36.1 FDP

Total: 249.3 FDP

DraftKings:          

PG: D. Schroder- 17.25 FDP

SG: K. Korver- 29.75 FDP

SF: P. Pierce- 18 FDP

PF: B. Griffin- 45.5 FDP

C: M. Gasol- 36.5 FDP

G: R. Felton- 11.75 FDP

F: P. Millsap- 42.75 FDP

Util: D. Jordan- 35.25 FDP

Total: 236.75 FDP

 

What went right?

After looking at yesterday’s slate, I went in with a plan to load up on big men and forwards and to punt the guard positions. And for the most part, the plan worked pretty well. The big men along with George/Melo performed pretty close to where we wanted them to be on our FanDuel lineup, but didn’t get enough out of the guards to make it into the money for tournaments. Same goes for our lineup on DraftKings; a lot of production from the guys we paid up for, but just didn’t get enough value for the lower salary guys.

Paul Pierce will be on my radar moving forward for cash games as a value play. His days of posting monster games are done, but I think he has one of the better floors of any lower salary guy in the league. He’s going to get 20-25 minutes a night, he plays in a great offense to get easy looks and he can still contribute to every category. I see him being a reliable 20 FDP points a night, which is perfectly acceptable for a punt option.

What went wrong?

 We missed punts. It happens and will happen quite a bit, especially on short slates where there are not many options to choose from. Sasha and Felton just didn’t produce, even though they were giving the opportunity and minutes to do so. Schroder had a decent game, but wasn’t given the extra minutes expected with Thabo Sefolosha hurt and Jeff Teague playing well. The importance when evaluating missed value plays after the fact is to reexamine why they were in your lineup and if it still makes sense. If so, then they were still good plays.

 

Elite Plays of the Day:

Demarcus Cousins: ($10,200 on DK, $10,900 on FD)

To me, I think there are two totally viable routes for stud players to go in tonight’s slate that drastically change how you build your roster. One is Russell Westbrook against the Magic and the other is DeMarcus Cousins against the Lakers. Boogie’s ceiling is through the roof in this game. The Kings come into this game with a 108.5 team total, both teams will be playing with a lot of pace and the Kings are at home. Hibbert presents some resistance, but the second he gets into foul trouble or has to come out of the game, the Lakers don’t have anyone who can come close to keeping Cousins off the glass or out of the paint. I’m already thinking about the mountain of points Boogie will get if Kelly, Bass or Randle have to guard him for an extended period of time.

Kawhi Leonard: ($7,700 on DK, $8,100 on FD)

He’s a little better value on DraftKings, but Kawhi is still far too cheap on both sites for a player with his upside. He’s the one player immune to the “Popovich effect” with regards to minutes. The 22 shots he took against OKC will come down as they get Aldridge more involved, but it’s still a great indication that he’s ready to embrace being the lead option for the Spurs and start taking 15-17 shots a game. If he starts consistently being a 20 PPG scorer, he’s going to end the season as one of the top DFS players.

I think this is the lowest price Kawhi will be all season, so we’ll be taking advantage while we can. Fire him up in all formats.

Marvin Williams: ($3,500 on DK, $4,200 on FD)

Williams was a play that stood out immediately as I was looking for good value plays on the day. He posted a 10 points, 10 rebound, 3 assist game in 38 minutes on Wednesday. He also went 0-5 from 3, which is a good indication that he’s looking to shoot a lot from deep and gives us more incentive on DraftKings.

Regardless of what happen in the position battle between him and Zeller moving forward, I think Williams will remain in a 30 minute role every night because of his positional versatility. He provides nice upside for a value play with his 3pt shot and ability to have a big rebounding game.

Draymond Green: ($6,900 on DK, $7,800 on FD)

Green is a much better value on DraftKings while his price on FanDuel is about where it should be for tonight’s game. In what should be a high scoring game (as it always is with these two teams), Green will see his role and minutes extended with Andrew Bogut out with injury. I think we’ll see a lot of the small-ball finals lineup with Green at C, especially with how Houston likes to go small at times too. The concern here is potential foul-trouble if he has to guard Dwight for an extended period of time, but the upside for a big game where Green plays a lot of minutes is too big to ignore.

Darren Collison: ($4,700 on DK, $5,800 on FD)

Collison will be a DraftKings only play for me tonight as there’s better value at $5,800 on FanDuel. What we saw against the Clippers will happen quite a bit for Collison this season; he’s going to play a good amount of minutes with Rondo at the shooting guard and if he’s outplaying him, he’ll just take his minutes at point guard. Collison will be one of the few reliable bench players that we can rely on to play a consistent 25-30 minutes this season.

He’s in the lineup tonight as a nice savings play for a lot of the same reasons that Cousins is our stud play of the day. High team total, fast-pace from both teams and the Lakers are even worse off defending the perimeter than they are in the post. Collison is a strong play in DraftKings tournaments and cash games.

 

DraftKings W-L: 23-3

DraftKings ROI: 75%

 

FanDuel W-L: 9-1

FanDuel ROI: 80%

 

Please feel free to ask me question on my twitter @AsmusSports. Best of luck!

 

 

 

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