Hoopscritic Free Agency Round table

Hoopscritic Free Agency Round table

  Where will Kevin Durant take his talents this offseason? Where should Kevin Durant take his talents this offseason? Brian Geltzeiler Durant will stay right where he is in OKC.  The financial benefits are too great and OKC represents his best chance to win a title next season.  He’ll sign a 2 year deal with a one year opt out so he can be a free agent with 10 years of service time and get a max contract in the summer of 17 at 35% of a much higher cap…. Oliver Maroney I think he just wants to go through the process. Players like to be wanted and I don’t think Durant is much different from other players in that regard. I think he knows where he wants to be, but wants to be “sure” of it. Similar to car shopping, you go in knowing what you’d like but want to test drive the options, just to know that you’re not “‘missing out”. 1B. I think it would be wise of Durant to stay for a one year deal, with another year as a player option. Not only will this allow him the freedom, but will ensure he doesn’t get stuck if Westbrook were to leave. Kevin Durant will become this generations’ Kobe Bryant if he were to stay with one team his entire career. Will he? I don’t know. But he’s got a top-five player to play alongside, a coach that was in his first NBA season, and a city that he completely immersed himself in. Based on the options and what’s available, I don’t see much of...
No Place Like Home: An Investigative Report On The Degree To Which NBA Players Are Affected By The Hostilities Of The Road

No Place Like Home: An Investigative Report On The Degree To Which NBA Players Are Affected By The Hostilities Of The Road

The NBA regular season is one heck of a marathon. From the dawn of October all the way through the ides of April, NBA teams compete in eighty-two 48-minute basketball contests—41 in their hometown venue and another 41 in a range of various road cities and stadiums. Out of this, a natural “home-court advantage” tends to materialize. Teams, for as long as the Association has been around, have been more successful at home than on the road. In fact, home teams, in any one season in league history, have never won less than 54% of their games, and have even managed to establish single season winning percentages as high as 68.5% in the past forty years. This kind of home-court advantage has been theorized to exist for a multitude of reasons; for instance, players and team personnel may be more comfortable performing at home, where they have an established routine and a consistent schedule. After all, being at home allows for a player to sleep in his own bed, drive to the game in his own car, and surround himself with his own friends and family. Meanwhile, visiting teams may be at a disadvantage because road venues are inconsistent in their divergence from home (there’s only one “home,” but twenty-nine different “road” environments, after all), give rise to various unforeseen circumstances, breaks from routine, hostile environments, and the like. Furthermore, it has been found that visiting teams often tend to be given fewer days of rest between games than do their home counterparts. Even still, these factors, in their multiplicity, materialize before the game itself, which brings forth a...
Home Vs. Road: A Quick Primer on What’s to Come

Home Vs. Road: A Quick Primer on What’s to Come

The NBA regular season is one heck of a marathon. Starting from the end of October and running all the way through the middle of April, NBA teams are tasked with competing in eighty-two 48-minute basketball contests—41 in their hometown venue and another 41 in a range of various road cities and stadiums. Out of this, a natural “home-court advantage” tends to materialize. Teams, for as long as the Association has been around, have been more successful at home than on the road. Indeed, this idea of a home-court advantage in the NBA is widely acknowledged to be an incredibly important factor towards the general outcome of games. Home teams, in any one season in league history, have never won less than 54% of their games, and have even managed to establish single season winning percentages as high as 67% in the past forty years. Despite this, however, the manner in which individual players’ performances wax and wane given home or road venue remains largely uninvestigated. For instance, many assume that star players, those at the absolute height of the NBA game, are less dependent on their surrounding environment(s) than less-heralded players. Bench players—on a general scale–, meanwhile, seem to carry the reputation that their quality of play is far less reliable on the road, where fans are more hostile, hotels and strangers replace homes, families, and friends, surroundings become unfamiliar, and otherwise uniform schedules fall prey to all kinds of unforeseen circumstances. As such, to further explore and clarify the public’s understanding of home-court advantage and the manner in which it influences not only teams but also individuals in...
Taking Attendance: An Investigative Report On How Certain Intrinsic Variables Dictate The Rates At Which NBA Fans Show Up For Games

Taking Attendance: An Investigative Report On How Certain Intrinsic Variables Dictate The Rates At Which NBA Fans Show Up For Games

Amongst NBA fans and players alike, fan attendance is often a matter of much back-and forth. Diehard NBA supporters often lament fanbases of other franchises for being fair-weather or fickle in their loyalty, while platitudes such as “we have the best fans in the world” or “our fans stick by us no matter what” are a common feature of post-game press conferences and preseason rallies. While such commentary has largely become synonymous with NBA culture as a whole, however, the manner in which preseason hype, variability in team success, or autonomous factors such as location relate to regular season attendance–not only on special, nationally televised occasions, but on a daily basis–is rarely, if ever, investigated. While many NBA aficionados may like to believe that their respective NBA fanbases are superior to those of others, for whatever special reason, the truth is that many exterior, overarching variables—ones largely out of the hands of any regular, everyday NBA fan—significantly impact the rate of attendance throughout the NBA. As such, after speculating as to the identity of these factors and the manner in which they dictate NBA attendance, I chose four particular variables—projected wins, regular season wins, market size, and recent playoff success—and plotted them against fan attendance for each and every team, as a means to investigate how highly each correlates with the rate at which NBA fans tend to turn out. The following table displays all of my potential explanatory variables, along with my response variable. In order, “Projected_Wins” denotes each team’s projected win total (which I gathered via ESPN, the self-proclaimed worldwide leader in sports), “Real_Wins” denotes each team’s regular...
Offense To Defense: An Investigative Report On How Each Side Of The Ball Relates To Success In The NBA

Offense To Defense: An Investigative Report On How Each Side Of The Ball Relates To Success In The NBA

An oft-repeated adage in the NBA states: “Offense wins eyes, but defense wins games”. While this type of platitude has become a commonly perpetuated cliché throughout NBA circles, its statistical applicability is rarely, if ever, challenged. In order to investigate whether there is some kind of significant difference in how offense, as opposed to defense, relates to wins altogether, I decided to investigate, with the 2014-15 NBA season serving as my personal guinea pig. Using team wins as my response variable, I plotted each team’s offensive and defensive rating, as explanatory variables, against the other, in order to differentiate between the predictive power of each as it pertains to regular-season wins in the NBA. All of my corresponding data for this investigation is displayed in the following table, and teams are sorted alphabetically, with “ORtg” denoting each team’s offensive rating (points scored per one-hundred possessions and “DRtg” denoting each team’s defensive rating (points allowed per one-hundred possessions—so, less is more): Furthermore, the following medley of scatterplots, equations, and explanations in context serves to parse the data I have collected. First, for the initial explanatory variable: The above scatterplot shows the relationship between team offensive rating, my first explanatory variable, and total teams wins, my response variable. Here, there is a moderately strong, positive, linear relationship between the strength of a team’s offensive rating and the number of games it won. The correlation for these variables is r=0.819. Evidently, teams that score a high number of points per 100 possessions tend to also win a good amount of games. In order to model the relationship between offensive rating and wins,...
Home-Court: An Investigative Report On The Dwindling Nature Of One Of The NBA’s Most Standard Advantages

Home-Court: An Investigative Report On The Dwindling Nature Of One Of The NBA’s Most Standard Advantages

It is often speculated by NBA fans and talking heads alike that the impact of home-court advantage has become less significant in the modern era than it was in the days of old. Various arguments have and continue to be made in this regard. For one, many cite the increasing marketability of the league, via ESPN, national TV broadcasts, and modern technology in general, as one reason fan attendance has become less regional and more “bandwagon”-oriented. Fans, nowadays, are less inclined to merely cheer for teams in their own cities; unlike, say, thirty years ago, when games broadcast in a certain city would include the home team almost exclusively, ESPN, TNT, ABC, and NBA League Pass have allowed for fans all across the world to watch whichever team interests them just about whenever they like. This, in theory, would create a phenomenon in which larger and larger proportions of fans in cities are likelier to attend games to root for (and, in turn, prop up) the opposing team, and diminish the inherent home-court advantage that the home team holds. Furthermore, many cite the rise of hubs such as “SeatGeek” and “Stubhub”, sites that have made ticket distribution far more frequent and easy, as a reason fan attendance has become a lot less homogenous. It is a whole lot easier to use one of these databases not only to find a favorable deal, but to book an adjacent flight, plan ahead of time, and even distribute tickets to fans in other cities. This kind of secondary distribution of tickets can take the authority out of the hands of team officials...