Hoopscritic DFS: Russell Westbrook Night?

Hoopscritic DFS: Russell Westbrook Night?

It’s not often that a lineup will score 289.5 points and produce $0, but that was the kind of night we had on the short-slate. The Kings-Mavericks game lived up to its projected fantasy goodness with a double-OT game while the Bulls and Bucks completely obliterated its team total projection. For our main cash lineup, we were a normal Kosta Koufos 8 point, 7 rebound 1 block game from another profitable evening. Unfortunately, Koufos was not his normal self and gave a not-so solid 5.5 FDP performance. Tonight is going to be interesting because it initially started as our favorite “Russell Westbrook with no Kevin Durant” day, but a few developments throughout the morning have made Westbrook someone you don’t have to roster in cash games. First off, Durant’s injury status has been upgraded twice today, which indicates that he’s going to at least try and play tonight. Second, Westbrook’s price has risen $900 and is extremely expensive at $11,600. With a lot of great value at PG tonight, Westbrook is someone I’ll have very limited exposure to if Durant is ruled out and virtually none if he is playing. That said, let’s get into our Elite Plays of the Day.   Elite Plays of the Day: Kemba Walker: ($8,200 on DK) This play stood out immediately and will be a popular one tonight in both cash and tournaments. The Suns are an absolute mess right now and are giving up monster games to point guards just about every night. Kemba is certainly someone who can take advantage as he comes into this game in great form, averaging 26.8...
Hoopscritic DFS: Starting 2016 The Right Way

Hoopscritic DFS: Starting 2016 The Right Way

Happy 2016! Looking forward to a prosperous year of DFS and making some real money in NBA the next few months. I’ll be changing the format for Hoopscritic DFS and evaluating previous day picks a lot more in-depth and our predictions. I’ll also be adding a “Top fades of the day” portion and go a bit into detail why I’m not on certain players for cash games. The elite-plays of the day will continue in each article. Let’s get right into it on a shorter 4-game slate. Elite Plays of the Day: Darren Collison ($5,300 on DK) I originally had Rondo in this spot, but as I was finishing his write-up, news broke that he was doubtful for tonight’s game. Collison was already in play tonight, but he becomes a must-own in cash games if Rondo is indeed ruled out. Collison has been in great form the last 5 games averaging 28.3 FDP in 29.3 MPG. In 3 starts this season, Collison’s minutes have seen a sizeable increase to 36.4 MPG. The Kings have a potentially large injury report tonight with Omri Casspi and Ben McLemore potentially both out of this game, which puts a lot of usage in the hands of Collison and a select few other Kings. Take the free space and fire up Collison in all formats. DeMarcus Cousins ($10,000 on DK) Surprisingly, Cousins is now cheaper than Draymond Green on DraftKings. The way tonight’s slate is breaking down, Cousins is the cash-game play, while Draymond is the better tournament play. This Kings/Mavericks game has a similar total as Warriors/Lakers, it will likely go 4 quarter...
Hoopscritic DFS: Sorting Through a 12-Game Slate

Hoopscritic DFS: Sorting Through a 12-Game Slate

I decided that I’m going to reduce the amount of tournaments I’m playing for a couple of weeks. My ROI has just been awful in tournaments, while my cash game ROI has been great. Simply, it’s just a money decision at this point and one that’s important for all DFS players to be able to distinguish once they have a good sample of cash and tournament entries to look at. Put your money in the best spots possible to profit. Don’t feel like you have to play both just because. With a full slate of games, let’s get right into today’ top plays. Elite Plays of the Day: Jrue Holliday ($4,700 on DK) With news that Jrue will no longer be sitting out back to backs, we have to take advantage of his vastly discounted price. When he’s right, he’ll contribute across the board in all categories, as he’s shown in the last 2 games. What we’re worried about most with Jrue though is the minutes he receives. As he’s played 28 and 29 minutes the last 2 games respectively, it shows the Pelicans are really close to playing him without any restrictions. The game against the Jazz isn’t the greatest match-up, but the total is still at 204 with a -4 spread towards Utah. There’s just too much value here as Jrue is closer to a $6,500 talent when given his full slate of minutes. He’s my top play to hit 7x-8x value on this slate. Stephen Curry ($10,700 on DK) Is there ever really a bad time to play Steph Curry? Despite some concern over a blow-out,...
Hoopscritic DFS: Where Rondo Costs Me Money

Hoopscritic DFS: Where Rondo Costs Me Money

Good ol’ Rajon Rondo. I’ve become a major fan of his in a short-time as he’s played very well with Boogie Cousins and helped the Kings get better. But he basically puts up triple double type numbers for 3 weeks (while I fade him through that entire stretch) and decides to come back to earth the night I roster him as one of my main cash game plays. Frustrating as the rest of my lineup performed decently well and would have had a full slate of cash. It just shows the importance of hitting on your top plays of the night; you need to get at least 4x value or it severely hampers your ability to make cashes. Let’s get into tonight’s smaller slate. Elite Plays of the Day: C.J. McCollum: ($6,600 on DK) As I’ve said in earlier articles, McCollum is one of my favorite players to target this season, especially in cash games. He’s been as consistent of a fantasy option as they come getting 34.9 MPG, 19.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.4 APG and 2 3ptFGM (which is significant on DK). What potentially makes McCollum by far my favorite play of the day is the status of Lillard, who left last night’s game early with a stomach virus. McCollum would slide into the lead playmaker role and would get as many possessions as he could handle. If Lillard is able to go, I’ll still be on McCollum. This game is a decent total at 203 and Portland is just a -1.5 favorite, which should lead to big minutes for the starters. Brook Lopez: ($7,400 on DK) Brook...
Hoopscritic DFS: Month Two Begins

Hoopscritic DFS: Month Two Begins

Finally, the fun part of the NBA DFS season is upon us as November comes to a close. We now have a great understanding of what usage rates and minutes will look like for a majority of players. Sample size is still fairly limited, but we have a pretty good idea of how teams will perform on a nightly basis. The good news is having more statistical data available for this year makes building lineups easier and less volatile; the bad news is everyone has access to that same data. Still, the way to distinguish our lineups is to continue to follow news closely and find the right spots to get value. Let’s get right into today’s slate. Elite Plays of the Day: Jerryd Bayless: ($4800 DK) Michael Carter Williams has fallen completely out of favor in Kidd’s rotation which has allowed Bayless to step into a major role as the team’s starting point guard. He’s coming of a 43 minute performance has put up at least 29 FDP and 30+ minutes in his last 4 games. He’s been secure in his playing time this season and has averaged 11.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 3.2 APG in his 5 starts this season. I think he’s one of many plays tonight that can hit 6x-7x value on tonight’s slate. Be sure he’s in the starting lineup again, but I’m not worried about his minutes after what we’ve seen from his playing time recently. Rajon Rondo: ($9,000 on DK) Rondo has proved a lot of people wrong this season with a career resurgence in Sacramento. It took him 4 or 5...
Hoopscritic DFS: Where Weird Nights Happen

Hoopscritic DFS: Where Weird Nights Happen

Last night was truly one of the strangest this NBA season, essentially just throwing out everyone’s DFS projections out the window. Cleveland and Utah was the game everyone avoided because it featured two of the best defensive teams in the NBA and two of the slowest pace teams in the NBA… until both teams decided to forget those facts and put up a 234 total. Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant were two of the best plays on the day and were on their way to monster games… until they left with injuries. Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio were strongly considered good mid-tier plays…until they were both pulled at the very last minute by Sam Mitchell. I unfortunately decided that building my cash game lineups around Davis and Durant were smart plays (a sentence I never thought I’d type) and had my worst lineup scores of the season as a result. The good news is there’s absolutely nothing we can do about slates like last night. It’s a rare occurrence and not something we can play around when doing our DFS research. We got a huge slate of games tonight, so let’s get right into the match-ups.   Elite Plays of the Day: Ish Smith ($4,800 on DK, $5,100 on FD) Ish Smith has been a pleasant surprise for the Pelicans this season, filling in as a consistent option while Jrue Holiday rehabs from his injury. He had another monster game last night against the Mavericks, putting up 17 points, 12 assists, 3 rebounds and just 2 turnovers. It looks like Holiday will be out due to rest tonight, which should...